The NASCAR Cup Series moves to Kansas Speedway Sunday at 2:50 p.m. ET for the Hollywood Casino 400. Below, we analyze the Hollywood Casino 400 odds and betting lines, with NASCAR picks and tips with odds from BetMGM sportsbook.

Hollywood Casino 400: What you need to know

NASCAR at Kansas Betting Picks Austin Dillon (+195) for a Top-10 Finish. Dillon has been very good at low-wear, 1.5-mile tracks this year. In seven races, he has three Top-10 finishes, including a win at Texas and a fourth at the first Las Vegas race. NASCAR Cup Series Odds to Win For the minute-to-minute odds changes, explore the respective sportsbooks at the top of the odds table. The drivers’ odds will be updated depending on current sportsbooks predictions and drivers’ standing in the overall rank list.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 11:58 a.m. ET.

The Cup Series continues its playoffs at Kansas. Joe Gibbs Racing driver Denny Hamlin (+425 for Sunday’s race) won the first stop this season at Kansas back on July 23, passing Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick (+425) in the closing laps while edging Penske Racing’s Brad Keselowski (+800) for the checkered flag.

Harvick has posted three wins, nine top 5s and 16 top 10s with 864 laps led in 29 career Cup starts at Kansas. His 9.59 Average-Finish Position leads all active drivers with at least two starts at the track.Rookie Cole Custer made his Kansas Cup debut back in July, and he ended up with an impressive seventh-place finish.JGR’s Martin Truex Jr. has finished 13th or better in each of his past nine Kansas Cup starts, including two wins and five finished of fourth or better.JGR’s Erik Jones has finished seventh or better in each of his past five Kansas Cup starts, posting a 5.2 AFP.

Who is going to win the Hollywood Casino 400?

TRUEX JR. (+500) has been one of the most consistent Cup drivers at Kansas in recent seasons, including a fourth-place run back on July 23.

Truex has a 7.7 AFP in his past 10 starts at Kansas, second-best behind Harvick with a minimum of two cup races. He and Harvick each have two victories during the past eight Kansas starts.

HARVICK (+425) is looking for redemption at Kansas after getting edged out in the most recent race there. He heads into the Round of 8 with a 45-point cushion over the fifth-place spot, but he’d obviously like to grab a win and punch his ticket to the final four. With his history at Kansas, he is a good bet as he has finished ninth or better in seven of his past nine Cup starts at the track, including two wins and five top-5 runs.

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If you’re looking for slightly longer odds, KURT BUSCH (+2200) sits in the eighth and final spot in the Round of 8, and he’d love to work his way into the final four. This has been a good track for the elder Busch bro, as he has five top-10 finishes in his past six Cup starts, including a ninth-place run in July. ALEX BOWMAN (+2200), at the same price as Busch, has finished 11th or better in each of his past four Kansas Cup runs, good for a 7.5 AFP. He is also a strong value.

Hollywood Casino 400 long-shot bet

Wouldn’t it be amazing to see Sunflower State native CLINT BOWYER (+5000) claim checkers in his final Cup start at his home track? He’s a bit of a sentimental pick, although he has posted a respectable 9.0 AFP in his past three Kansas Cup starts.

JONES (+3500) is on the outside looking in for the Cup Series playoffs, but he is a solid value at Kansas. His past five Cup starts in Kansas have resulted in finishes of seventh or better, good for an outstanding 5.2 AFP. What’s not to like?

Nascar Kansas Odds To Win Super Bowl

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With NASCAR implementing a new aerodynamics package for speedway racing in recent years, 1.5-mile ovals have provided some of the most exciting action in the sport and Kansas Speedway has been no exception. Both 2019 races at Kansas Speedway had green-white-checkered finishes and now NASCAR is hoping for another classic race to kick of the Round of 8 in the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs with the 2020 Hollywood Casino 400. The green flag drops at 2:30 p.m. ET on Sunday. Forty drivers will start side by side with the top eight in the starting grid still competing for the NASCAR Cup Series championship.

Denny Hamlin won the Super Start Batteries 400 at Kansas Speedway in July and he's the 5-2 favorite in the 2020 Hollywood Casino 400 odds from William Hill. However, Kevin Harvick (13-5) and Martin Truex Jr. (18-5) both have multiple wins here and they're also near the top of the NASCAR at Kansas odds board. Before you make your 2020 Hollywood Casino 400 picks, be sure to see the latest 2020 NASCAR Playoffs at Kansas predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven model at SportsLine.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 NASCAR season by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. It got off to a hot start on its NASCAR picks following the coronavirus hiatus as well, calling seven of the top 10 drivers at both Darlington races. Using the model, McClure also recommended an outright play on winner Brad Keselowski at 13-1 as one of his best bets at Bristol in May.

The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami. At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season, and then nailed four of the top five drivers in the All-Star Race at Bristol.

In the last two weeks, the model has gone 2-for-2, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 last week at the Charlotte Roval. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the NASCAR at Kansas race on Sunday, Oct. 18, 10,000 times. Head here to see the complete projected leaderboard.

Top 2020 Hollywood Casino 400 predictions

The model is high on Alex Bowman, even though he's a 22-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Kansas odds from William Hill. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Bowman is currently seventh in the 2020 NASCAR standings and he's 58 points out of the lead and 18 points out of the top four, so he'll likely need a win in the next three weeks to earn a spot in the Final Four for Homestead.

Luckily, Bowman has run pretty well at Kansas of late with three top-10 finishes in his last four starts, including a runner-up finish in the 2019 Digital Ally 400. Bowman led five laps and finished fifth in his last 1.5-mile oval start at Las Vegas, and also led six laps before finishing eighth in his last start at Kansas Speedway in July. He'll start sixth on Sunday and should be up near the front all day with his No. 88 ChevyGoods.com Chevrolet dialed in with a great 1.5-mile setup.

And a massive shocker: Hamlin, the 5-2 race favorite, stumbles big time and fails to get to victory lane. There are far better values in this loaded field. Hamlin has seven wins already this season and he's trimmed Kevin Harvick's lead at the top of the 2020 NASCAR standings to just 13 points entering the Round of 8. But Hamlin is coming off a race where he didn't lead a lap despite starting on the pole and eventually finished 15th at the Charlotte Roval last week.

And even though Hamlin won the 2020 Super Start Batteries 400 at Kansas Speedway earlier this year and last year's Hollywood Casino 400, he's finished outside the top 10 in 15 of his 24 career starts there. He'll start back in seventh on Sunday and all six of the drivers in front of him are still alive in the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs.

How to make 2020 Hollywood 400 picks

The model is also targeting four other drivers with NASCAR Playoffs at Kansas odds of 12-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can only see who they are here.

So who wins Sunday's 2020 Hollywood Casino 400? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2020 NASCAR at Kansas leaderboard, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks and nailed the Daytona 500.

2020 NASCAR Playoffs at Kansas odds (via William Hill)

Denny Hamlin 5-2

Kevin Harvick 13-5

Martin Truex Jr. 18-5

Brad Keselowski 8-1

Chase Elliott 8-1

Joey Logano 12-1

Ryan Blaney 13-1

Nascar Kansas Odds To Win Prizes

Video: Highlights: Briscoe wins Xfinity race at Kansas (NBC Sports)

Kyle Busch 14-1

Alex Bowman 22-1

Kurt Busch 30-1

Erik Jones 50-1

Aric Almirola 50-1

William Byron 60-1

Matt DiBenedetto 60-1

Nascar Odds To Win Kansas

Clint Bowyer 75-1

Jimmie Johnson 75-1

Austin Dillon 100-1

Tyler Reddick 100-1

Cole Custer 125-1

Christopher Bell 125-1

Matt Kenseth 250-1

Ryan Newman 300-1

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 300-1

Chris Buescher 500-1

Bubba Wallace 1000-1

John Hunter Nemechek 1500-1

Ty Dillon 2000-1

Michael McDowell 2000-1

Ryan Preece 2000-1

Daniel Suarez 2500-1

Corey Lajoie 5000-1

JJ Yeley 5000-1

Odds To Win Kansas Nascar Race 2019

Reed Sorenson 5000-1

Joey Gase 5000-1

James Davison 5000-1

Brennan Poole 5000-1

Timmy Hill 5000-1

Quin Houff 5000-1

Nascar Kansas Odds To Win World Series

Chad Finchum 5000-1

Josh Bilicki 5000-1